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After an awesome performance 2 weeks ago, I came back down to Earth a little last week with a 3-2 showing on my picks of the week and a 4-4 total.  That brings the season totals to 18-6 on picks of the week and 25-16 overall.

Picks of the Week: 

South Carolina +2.5 at Tennessee - The Gamecocks have something to prove again and the Volunteers are starting to let their season slip away.  Spurrier will have USC primed to pull the upset in Knoxville.  Cocks by a TD.

Michigan State -4 at Iowa - I’ve successfully picked the Spartans to beat the spread 4 times already this year.  I think they’ll do it again this week, beating the Hawkeyes by 8-10.

Washington -3.5 vs. Arizona - Washington has played fairly well against a pretty tough schedule.  I think they’ll finally get a chance to beat up on somebody this week.  Huskies by 10+.

Other picks:

UTEP +4 vs. Houston - Huge conference game.  Houston is a good team, but I just think the Miners can pull this one out at home.

Penn State +4.5 vs. Ohio State - This will be a physical, defensive struggle, and the final margin will likely be a very close one.  I think the Nittany Lions will keep it within a field goal or so, if not win outright.

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I nailed all 5 of my picks of the week last week and went 7-1 total. I’m now a very respectable 15-4 this year on picks of the week and 21-12 total.

Picks of the Week

Tennessee -1.5 at Alabama -  Fulmer’s crew is building some momentum, and I just don’t think will be able to hang with the Vols.  I’ll say Tennessee by 7-10.

Cal -1.5 at UCLA - This is actually one of the more interesting matchups this week. Cal likely would’ve been a bit more heavily favored if not for their upset loss to Oregon State last week.  I think the Bears will rebound this week.  UCLA will make it a game, but Cal will win by 7 or so.

Miami +5.5 at Florida State - These are two inconsistent teams with something to prove.  The key factor is - Miami looks like a top 10 team when they have that chip on their shoulder (see their Thursday night destruction of Texas A&M) and FSU has barely looked better than decent all year no matter the circumstances.  If Miami comes to play they could run away with this one.

Michigan State +19 at Ohio State - I don’t think the Spartans have the talent to pull off the upset.  I do think the Buckeyes will take MSU’s best shot, though.  Tressel will go a little conservative offensively and Michigan State will play great defense to keep the final margin in the 10-13 range.

Florida -6.5 at Kentucky - The Wildcats are due for a little let down, and the Gators are just a flat out better team.  How motivated Florida will come out remains to be seen, but I just don’t think Kentucky can get up again after the huge win last week.

Other picks: 

Mississippi +5 over Arkansas - The Rebels have played some very good teams close this year, and Arkansas is one of those programs that seems to perpetually let inferior teams hang around until the end.  All signs thus point to a close one, and I think Coach O and co. will pull off the upset at home.

Kansas -4 at Colorado - Mangino’s boys are riding high.  Colorado pulled a big home upset earlier this year, and it should be a good game, but I just think Kansas will pull away late and win by about 10.

Texas Tech -4 at Missouri - Missouri is coming off a loss in a huge game.  I think Texas Tech is going to jump out early, and Missouri will play frustrated, make some mistakes and just never catch up.  Red Raiders by two touchdowns.

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I went 4-2 last week total, and 3-1 on picks of the week.  Not bad.  The picks are a little late this week, but there aren’t really any compelling early games today outside of UCF-USF.

Picks of the Week: 

Louisville +9.5 at Cincinnati - I wholeheartedly believe that Cincinnati is a good team.  I just think the Cards have their backs against the wall and need to come up big this week.  Louisville will keep it within a TD.

Tennessee -7 at Mississippi State - I have respect for what the Bulldogs can do, but the Vols are starting to get things turned around and MSU is down to their 3rd string QB.  Vols win by 10+.

Notre Dame +14.5 over Boston College - The Irish are basically just playing for pride at this point, but they have a chance to salvage a big chunk of it all at once by playing the highly ranked Eagles close at home.  Matt Ryan should do enough for BC to pull out the win, but the Irish will play out of their minds to make this a good game.

Michigan State -3.5 over Indiana - The Spartans need to rebound after an embarrassing loss to Northwestern.  I think they’ll  handle Indiana.

Auburn +3 at Arkansas - Arkansas will be laying it all on the line, but Auburn has played great the past couple of weeks.  The Tigers’ D will hold McFadden in check as much as possible and Auburn will pull out the win in a close game.

 Other picks:

Wisconsin +7 at Penn State - This will be a close, defensive struggle. The Badgers have a knack for winning those types of games, so I’ll take them with the points.

Texas Tech -10.5 at Texas A&M - The Red Raiders delight in beating the Aggies.  They will put up a ton of points and roll past A&M again this year.

UConn +4.5 at Virginia - Both of these teams have beat up on weak schedules, so we’ll find out who’s for real.  Al Groh finds ways to lose games like this.

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With week 7 just about upon us, time is running short to reflect on the brilliance of week 6.  Here is a super fast recap:

5. Kansas beats Kansas State to move to 5-0 - Two years in a row now KSU has come up with a big win over Texas only to fall to cross state rival Kansas the following game. The Wildcats were the story last week, though, the Jayhawks take center stage this week. The Fightin’ Manginos are 5-0 headed into the meat of their Big 12 schedule.

4. Illinois knocks off #5 Wisconsin - The upset that wasn’t.  Despite the fact that the Illini were unranked and the Badgers found themselves perched in the top 5, Vegas made Illinois a slight favorite heading into this one. And so it was.  Illinois lead almost the entire game and won 31-26, ending the nation’s longest active winning streak in the process. Ron Zook’s team are now realistic Big Ten title contenders, but there’s still a long way to go.

3. Tennessee destroys #12 Georgia - The Volunteers had gotten off to a pretty terrible start this season by their standards. They may have started the process of saving their season, and Phil Fulmer’s job, with a 35-14 thrashing of Georgia that was over by halftime. After the poor start, many predicted Fulmer would soon be shown the door in Knoxville. We’ll see how much fight the big man has left down the stretch.

2. LSU holds off Florida - For a while on Saturday night, it really looked like the top 2 teams would both go down. Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators had a surprising 10 point lead in Death Valley, but the Tigers stormed back stormed back in the 4th, converting several 4th downs on the way to a 28-24 win. With everything on the line, they did just enough to get a victory. Survive and advance.

1. Stanford stuns USC at the Coliseum - It’s fairly rare to see a 40+ betting line when two BCS conference teams meet, but Jim Harbaugh and the Stanford Cardinal came into Los Angeles a 41 point underdog. They shocked everyone by not only beating the spread, but beating the Trojans outright. After the string of upsets last week, USC and LSU seemed to have a clear path to the title game. Now everything is up in the air again.  I can’t see the Trojans overcoming a loss like this one.

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I went 4-2 last week overall and 3-1 on the picks of the week. (After Mississippi State played pretty well the entire game, a Gamecock TD in the final minute prevented me from going 4-0, but I guess that’s the way it goes.) I’m now 7-3 on picks of the week and 10-9 total this season. On to the picks:

Picks of the Week:

Auburn -9.5 over Vanderbilt - The Tigers may be due for a let down after their big win last weekend, but I think they should still be able to pull away from Vandy for a comfortable two touchdown win.

Houston +11.5 at Alabama - Coming off the loss to Florida State, I don’t think the Crimson Tide will be able to get up for Houston who will be playing like it’s the Super Bowl. Houston may not quite have enough to win, but they will keep it close.

Arizona State -10 at Washington State - ASU has way too many athletes to let Cougars hang around for long. This will be a big time blowout.

Maryland +3.5 over Georgia Tech - Maryland just put up over 500 yards of offense against a similarly built defense at Rutgers. I think the bruising Terps’ rushing attack has turned the corner and will do enough to get the win at home over this offensively challenged Tech team.

Other Picks:

Wisconsin +1 at Illinois - This didn’t make the picks of the week for one reason - The Illini have great speed and are for real. They are also, however, a very young team and a prime candidate for a little let down coming off the win over Penn State. With their offensive weapons, I wouldn’t be shocked if Illinois got the win, but I think the Badgers will sneak away with another one.

Virginia Tech +5.5 at Clemson - Clemson’s offense got exposed a little bit last week, and they may face an even tougher test this Saturday. With VT still breaking in freshman QB Tyrod Taylor, I don’t quite feel confident enough to put this among the picks of the week, but my gut says the underdog Hokies will shut down the Clemson offense and win the game outright.

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College Football got turned upside down this week. Loads of top ranked teams got knocked out, and national championship hopes came crashing down on all sides. Heisman dreams were dashed and spat upon. Upset Saturday in late September? It’s a madhouse… a madhouse! As you may have guessed, the top 5 this week is dominated by upsets.

5. South Florida knocks off West Virginia… again - The madness all got started on Friday night. We all knew the Bulls’ defense could run, but many were surprised to see the USF defensive front physically whip on the West Virginia offense the way they did. WVU prides itself on physical play, often saying that they want to make the game a fist fight. They got their wish in Tampa Bay - and they got beat up. I think USF’s hard hitting and aggression can take credit for most, if not all, of WVU’s 6 turnovers, and thus the win, though the Mountaineers actually outgained the Bulls 436-270. You have to feel bad for the WVU defense - they take a lot of criticism, but they played great the other night to no avail.

4. Maryland upsets Rutgers in Piscataway - After a sluggish start, Rutgers put up a couple of quick scores to go up 17-14 at the half. It seemed they had taken control of the game, but they didn’t realize, couldn’t have realized, that they’d made one critical error - they knocked starting Maryland QB Jordan Steffy out of the game. Read the rest of this entry →

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After going 5-5 on my picks last week, I’m ready for things to take a turn for the awesome this time out. I’m now 4-2 on ‘picks of the week’ and 6-7 total.

Picks of the Week:

Louisville -8.5 at NC State - The Cards will bounce back this week. As bad as the Louisville defense is, I don’t think the Wolfpack have the offensive firepower to hang with Brohm and co.

Michigan State +7.5 at Wisconsin - I can’t say I’m confident the Spartans can pull off the road upset, but Wisconsin has been winning ugly. MSU will keep it within a TD.

Cincinnati -14.5 at San Diego State - The Bearcats are playing with confidence and blowing people out. Cincy will take care of business early and prepare for the huge game with Rutgers next week.

Mississippi State +13.5 at South Carolina - The Bulldogs will catch the Gamecocks napping to some degree this week. It will be Smelley’s first start for USC, and coming off the loss at LSU, the Cocks will be a little hungover. I just think MSU will be able to keep this one close if not pull off the upset.

Other picks:

Virginia -6 over Pitt - Wannstedt and Groh face off in a dumb and dumber style battle of the wits. Neither team is very good, but freshman QB Pat Bostick will likely suffer enough growing pains in his first start to make it easy for the Cavs. He threw 3 picks last week.

Clemson -3 at Georgia Tech - I have mixed feelings here, but I think Clemson has the speed to get past the Yellow Jackets in what will likely be a fairly low-scoring game.

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The Gist - With repeated comments to the press over the past few months, former Auburn Coach Terry Bowden has made it pretty clear he intends to be coaching college football next fall. The Terry Bowden Sweepstakes is on. Many will try, but only one university can snatch up the little fortunate son that could. Over the next few days, we will be looking at a few of the prime candidates that could see Bowden pacing their sidelines just under a year from now. In part one we looked at Mississippi.

The School - Enter the Virginia Cavaliers. The ACC school is widely believed to be considering parting ways with 7th year head coach Al Groh. Groh has actually managed to helm 4 winning seasons in Charlottesville, but a 1-5 record vs. rival Virginia Tech and the fact the he has yet to have a single season with less than 4 losses places him squarely on the hot seat. The Cavs suffered an embarrassing loss in the opener to Wyoming but have rebounded to a 3-1 start this year. It’s unclear what his margin for error will be down the stretch.

Why it’d be a good fit for Bowden - Though he mostly coached in the deep south, Terry Bowden is a West Virginia University graduate so geographically, Virginia wouldn’t be too bad. The school has some tradition and fan support, there is already some talent on board, and Virginia is a very talent rich state. There are a lot of positives at UVA.

Conclusion - First of all, at 3-1 I think Groh still has a chance to save his job for another year or two.  That aside, Virginia would be a great fit for Bowden. The money, fan support, tradition and in state talent are all right there to be had. On top of that, traditional powers like Miami and Florida State are down, so there would be a window of opportunity for immediate ACC success. With top 25 recruiting classes in 2 of the last 3 years, UVA might just have the talent to make some noise sooner than later. The only potential downfall I can think of would be the possibility of yearly match-ups against his dad, Bobby, at FSU and brother, Tommy, at Clemson. Still, I think Virginia is a much more legitimate candidate for Bowden’s services than Ole Miss.

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With repeated comments to the press over the past few months, former Auburn Coach Terry Bowden has made it pretty clear he intends to be coaching college football next fall. The Terry Bowden Sweepstakes is on. Many will try, but only one university can snatch up the little fortunate son that could. Over the next few days, we will be looking at a few of the prime candidates that could see Bowden pacing their sidelines just under a year from now.

The School: Our first contender hails from the SEC. The Mississippi Rebels have already suffered 19 losses under Head Coach Ed Orgeron in a little over 2 seasons, and only 1 of Coach O’s 8 wins thus far has come against a team with a winning record. (The Rebs beat a 7-5 Memphis team back in 2005.) It used to be a coach would get 5 seasons to get his program implemented, but these days you have to show something positive pretty early or you’re fighting an uphill battle right out of the gate.

Why it’d be a good fit for Bowden: First of all, it’s an SEC job, which carries some clout. Terry had success at both Samford and Auburn, so geographically it’d be a pretty good fit. Additionally, despite the setbacks on the field, Orgeron has recruited fairly well, including a class that was ranked in the top 20 nationally in 2006. I don’t expect Bowden to go anywhere with an empty cupboard in terms of talent.

Conclusion: Mississippi could be a big player come December or so when hirings and firings start up. Assuming Orgeron doesn’t get things turned around between now and then, this could ultimately come down to whether or not Mississippi is a place that Bowden feels he could win at long term. It boils down to a fundamental question: Would Bowden rather jump right back into the SEC and try to build up a program that finds itself in the cellar of the conference, or start in a less celebrated conference with an easier schedule and try to position himself to take over one of the top tier college football jobs in a few years?

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There’s still a lot of football to be played. This past weekend saw LSU take care of business, Florida struggle, and Oklahoma, USC and West Virginia thoroughly dominate their opponents. In other words, the national title picture is no clearer. WVU has their first big test on Friday night in Tampa Bay, and the Gators and Tigers will go head to head in a little under two weeks. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, here are this week’s top stories…

5. UConn upsets Pitt 34-14 - The post game press conference was like a wake. After 2 and a half seasons, the Dave Wannstedt era in Pittsburgh finally has its signature game. Unfortunately for the Panther program, it didn’t come in the form of a marquee win but a rather embarrassing loss. Randy Edsall and the Connecticut Huskies came out of the Steel City with just their second road win in Big East play and are now 4-0. UConn is sitting pretty considering they should have lost to Temple, but Dave Wannstedt’s warming seat has to be considered the primary story here. Wannstedt seemed genuinely dumbfounded at the press conference, often saying “I don’t understand,” and “I don’t know.” Just how bad has the Pittsburgh offense been? Pitt actually failed to convert on 23 straight 3rd downs, spanning most of their last 3 games. Connecticut built a 27-7 halftime lead and just sat on the ball for the duration of the second half, coasting to an easy win. And just think, it was 10 years ago that Walt Harris had Pitt beating a ranked Miami team on Thursday night. Someone out there is saying I told you so. From a Dan Le Batard column:

“A former Wannstedt assistant told ESPN’s Chris Mortensen that it’ll take five years for Wannstedt to turn the University of Pittsburgh into Temple.”

4. Heisman race breaks wide open - Heading into the season, Vegas had Arkansas RB Darren McFadden (3/1 odds) and Louisville QB Brian Brohm (7/2) as the Heisman favorites. Less than a month into the season, they both have 2 losses under their belts with their toughest games still in front of them. Read the rest of this entry →

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